how soon question


The "HOW SOON?" Question

 

Some accounts talk in a timescale of tens or hundreds of years for the major impact of increased carbon dioxide levels. Other accounts are stressing that in some regions serious effects are already being experienced. The 2012 loss of Arctic Ice will cause a drastic revision of estimates as it may set warming forward by 20 years. The loss of snow pack may be even more serious.

The Feb 2016 warming of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels has astonished scientists. This was the limit proposed at the Paris Summit only 3 months ago and it has been reached already.

 

It may be comforting to take the mid-point of a wide range of climate model patterns but they do not take into account 'tipping points' after which changes are expected to be more rapid and irreversible.

 

The public will have to establish a point at which further damage is unacceptable before governments can formulate policy and act.

 

One puzzle in the past decade has been the slower than expected global temperature increase. The balance between the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing earth radiation should have caused more of a temperature increase on land or in the ocean. This has led skeptics to attribute more of the warming to so called natural causes. On September 18th 2011 a study was released by the National Center for Atmospheric Research proposing the deep ocean as the destination for the missing heat and La Niña as the transfer mechanism. This has been confirmed in 2013.

 

A recently discovered (July 2012) increase in the absorbtion of CO2 by the land during the past 50 years has also raised further questions.

 

Group members

 

 

Sources

  1. Record Breaking February Spells Doom  18/03/16
  2. IPCC Warming not Slowing  09/12/15
  3. Doomsday Clock at 3 minutes to midnight  28/01/16 
  4. Time is Running Out  UN Report 08/04/14
  5. Sea Level Rises Faster  than expected 18/01/15 
  6. More Accurate Prediction Method  15/03/14
  7. Happened Before  01/04/14 
  8. Climate Change Confirmed by World Met Office  25/03/14 
  9. Pacific Winds Slow Climate Change  14/02/14
  10. Severe Heat Waves Increase 28/02/14 
  11. Decade of Extreme Temperatures  affect 94% of countries 04/07/13 
  12. Tundra Plants Confirm Extreme Warming 27/10/13 
  13. Hidden Heat Found in Deep Oceans  28/03/13
  14. Arctic Ice Loss Equivalent to 20 years human CO2  06/09/12 
  15. Rainforest Resilient  11/03/13 
  16. Faster than we thought 2012  loss of Snow pack 06/11/12 
  17. Shocking Greenland Melt  20/08/12 
  18. Ice Age Puzzles 28/02/13 
  19. 100 months to avoid disaster 20/08/08
  20. 400 new warming estimates 06/04/12 
  21. Abrupt Increase in CO2 Absorbtion by Land  raises questions 23/07/12 
  22. Dramatic Change May not be Predictable  02/09/10
  23. Paleoclimate Papers 2010- 2011  03/08/12 
  24. 25 years to ocean disaster 30/11/08
  25. Temperature Trends Still Upwards in 2010  07/01/11 
  26. Greenland Melting Slower than Predicted  12/09/10 
  27. North Pole May Be Ice Free by 2050  20/04/10
  28. Sea Level Rise Not Accelerating  17/08/10 
  29. Nature Evaluates 2 Methane Time Bombs 05/03/09
  30. Early Action Important - Met Office 03/03/09
  31. No Warming for next decade is possible 27/10/08
  32. Glacier Melt hits Record Rate UN says 16/03/08
  33. Apocalyptic Climate Predictions Mislead Public 12/02/09
  34. Sooner and Even Worse for USA 16/04/07
  35. IPCC Summary for North America 20/06/07
  36. Faster than ever 27/03/07
  37. 1970s cooling explained  26/09/10 
  38. Global Emissions Growing Ever Faster 26/09/08
  39. North Korea Indicates World Disaster 20/06/08
  40. Sea Level Rise calculations 17/09/08
  41. Arctic Ice More Vulnerable to Sunny Weather 22/04/08
  42. Tipping Points Study 05/02/08
  43. Global Dimming A problem or a solution?
  44. Varying Arctic Predictions 2008 14/02/08 - my bet, gone by 2020!
  45. Melting Ice Causes Earthquakes 08/09/07
  46. Climate Models Improve 11/08/07
  47. 9 Tipping Points
  48. 10000 years become one day
  49. Worse than the current gloomy predictions
  50. NASA Warning and the loss of species
  51. More rapidly than you think
  52. African Food Production to halve by 2020 25/09/07
  53. Hansen Warns of Sea Level Danger 22/08/07
  54. Models v Observations
  55. Smallest Arctic Icecap ever on 17/08/07 and getting smaller
  56. California Soon
  57. Arizona Trees Animals Stressed
  58. Methane Balances Explained 28/09/06
  59. American SW Dustbowl
  60. Climate Uncertainty
  61. Sea Level
  62. Feedback loops accelerate warming
  63. Will reducing emissions be enough?
  64. 2100 now
  65. New York Sea Level