How Bad is the Situation

Summary

We should separate what we know from what we suspect and fear

We know

1. Carbon Dioxide has reached its highest level in the atmosphere for 400,000 years and the damage that will be caused is only beginning to be understood.
2. Earth is reaching its highest temperature since civilisation began. 2014 is the hottest on record.
3. The oceans are absorbing greenhouse gases and becoming less alkaline. As understanding of the damage to phytoplankton and the whole food chain becomes clearer this is becoming the most serious short term effect.
4. Species are disappearing 1000 times faster than normal
5. There are at least 9 Evironmental Boundaries We Must Not Cross  for the survival of the planet as we know it. 
6. 2011 was 9th Warmest Year since 1880  according to NASA which follows the trend that 9 of the ten warmest years since modern records began have occurred since year 2000. A new record for global disaster cost was recorded.

If we compare what we know of CO2 levels and what we know of CO2 emissions it looks like this.

This is quite enough to make us want to act. We are acting but not fast enough.

We Fear

The following events may be linked to a greater or lesser extent with the Carbon Dioxide levels, the levels of other greenhouse gases, and other human activities.

1. The polar icecap is shrinking faster than scientists predicted, the Arctic Ocean is warming and Greenland is being affected dramatically.
2. Gulf Stream is slowing and may have stopped for 10 days in 2004
3. Loss of ocean species diversity may cause the collapse of the biggest carbon cycle.
4. Forests are becoming less effective in absorbing CO2 and may decline rapidly due to increased forest fire risk. Canadian Forests Now Generate CO2 2009
5. The first hurricane ever reported has been experienced in the South Atlantic
6. Antarctic problems due to warmer water streams undermining and causing loss of ice shelves. The long term effects are difficult to estimate.
7. Past the tipping point? A ten year window closing?
8. Drought threatens to make poor nations suffer and become more militant. Economic refugees will increase 11/03/08
9. Warming will continue long after humans stop burning fossil fuels.
10. Other significant risks are proposed in 9 Evironmental Boundaries We Must Not Cross
11. No satisfactory global solution has been proposed.

Our task is to find out as quickly as we can what damage we are causing and how we can put it right. Please help us.

Group members

• Malcolm
• ClimateConcern

Link to keep up to date

Planet Ark sponsored by Reuters at: http://www.planetark.org/searchhome.cfm

Sources

1. 2014 Hottest Year on Record  19/01/15
2. Record high global emissions make 2C target almost impossible 20/09/14 
3. Tibet Glaciers Warmest for 2000 Years says Chinese report 09/10/14 
4. Pine Island Glacier Causes Sea Level Rise  even if warming stops 25/02/14
5. Amazing Methane in Arctic - NASA  20/06/13
6. Too Late for Bhutan Glaciers  28/01/13 
7. Temperature Compared for 10000 years 07/03/13 
8. Response 50 times too slow  21/07/12 
9. Models may overestimate plant carbon absorbtion  27/11/12 
10. Scientific Disagreements and Deadlock  15/06/12 
11. Extreme Summer Temperatures Becoming the Norm    09/09/11
12. Establishing the Human Factor in Climate Change  06/01/12 
13. Tough 2020 Target Offers Hope 30/10/11 
14. Unlocking the Pliocene Puzzle  03/04/13 
15. Pledges 2010 lead climate to 4 degrees warming - study June 2010
16. No changes affecting both hemispheres simultaneously for 20000 years  14/11/11 
17. Hope on the horizon? 25/01/11 
18. North Sea Fish Stocks Rising  08/10/12 
19. Ozone Hole 2012 Second Smallest in 20 years  29/10/12 
20. Hurricane Effect Doubtful 24/01/12 
21. How many species on Earth estimated 8.7 million of which 86% undiscovered 25/08/11 
22. 2010 Second Warmest Year  04/01/11 
23. 9 Evironmental Boundaries We Must Not Cross  23/09/10 
24. Dangers Are Greater than People Realise Oxford Climate X Change 03/12/09
25. How bad will it get? 25/08/08
26. Arctic Ice Least for 3000 years  12/06/10 
27. A Shot at the Maths 08/12/09
28. Causes of Methane Slowing Down  13/08/11 
29. Insurers Struggle to Assess Climate Risks  21/01/11 
30. Higher Estimates of Warming from MIT 30/05/09
31. World Bank Says Tipping Points are Near 02/03/09
32. Worse than Worst Case IPCC Scenario 15/02/08
33. What is the Probability of Dangerous Climate Change ? - A tough study 06/04/09
34. NASA Key Indicators up to date now.
35. Methane Levels Rising Again 30/10/08
36. Canadian Forests Now Generate CO2 09/01/09
37. Less Arctic Ice 6000 years ago 27/10/08
38. UN Ocean Report Disaster 22/08/08
39. Planet Earth - We have a Problem Briefing for UK Parliament 06/07/07
40. Near Zero Emissions Needed according to latest research 11/03/08
41. IPCC Report Devastating 20/11/07
42. Historic Australian Drought Worsens 22/10/08
43. G8 Discusses Climate Change 24/05/08
44. Amazon Rainforest Grassland by 2060 says study 03/10/08
45. Stern says he under estimated risks 18/04/08
46. Intergovernmental Panel - Ecosystems 10/09/07
47. Co2 Worse than expected
48. Danger to East Mediterranean and N Africa IPCC report 16/01/08
49. Food for 1 billion poor threatened 02/02/08
50. Food Shortage Worse if disease and weather damage is taken into account. 09/12/07
51. Hotter than we think - the science 29/12/07
52. Ocean Acidity Concerns 21/02/08
53. Source and Sink Uncertainties 03/01/08
54. Ocean Collapse Possible as diversity is endangered 27/12/07
55. Wetlands Carbon Bomb 20/07/08
56. African Food Threatened 07/04/08
57. Europe Warming Faster than the average 30/09/08
58. Problems probably greater than governments now anticipate. 30/10/07
59. Summary by the NASA Earth Observatory
60. Growth in Carbon Emissions is Out of Control
61. Warming continues even after humans stop burning fossil fuels
62. MIT Viewpoint September 2006
63. CO2 levels
64. Jeddah Dangerous Pollution 30/04/08
65. Emissions Accelerating
66. Ineffective UN Conference 2006
67. Drought and Desert
68. Disaster in Europe
69. Chinese Concern 02/08/07
70. Worse than we think
71. Forest Fires
72. 2000 Islands in Danger
73. Kenya Problems
74. 3 degrees disaster
75. Extinction of Species
76. IPCC Report Summary
77. How Bad
78. Resilience of Coral Reefs 22/08/07
79. Get ready to suffer.
80. Warmest for 12000 years
81. Feedback Factor
82. Stern Report
83. Food Chain Damaged
84. North Sea Recovery
85. Predicting Extreme Weather Events
86. Earlier Cold Periods Studied using midge heads to indicate instability of the Gulf Stream