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Climate Destabilization

Page history last edited by PBworks 12 years, 6 months ago

Climate Destabilization

 

Comments on CCG Re: Global Cooling 2007H below

 

This observation may be an early indication of 'global climate

destabilization' (the more accurate term that can be used when

discussing the climate change/global warming issue).

 

People are little too obsessed with their thermometers but who can

blame them when the issue is referred to as global 'warming'. The real

problem here is that the atmosphere destabilizes as forcing factors

(atmospheric gases, solar output, volcanism, solar declination) change

its overall energy exchange rates. Increases in greenhouse gases add

more energy to the atmospheric system (this is why its called warming)

but this energy is distributed via latent heat (melting,

evaporation...ie. storms) exchanges primarily and sensible heat

exchanges thereafter (temperature). When the forcing factors are

rapid, like the recent unprecedented flux of greenhouse gases to the

atmosphere, and thereby change the energy in the atmosphere rapidly,

the chance for destabilization increases.

 

If 'global warming' meant that we would simply live in a warmer world

then the only issues would be saving polar bears, desalinating salt

water, and moving our cities further inland. But, in that case,

agricultural productivity would be abundant as it was during the

Medieval Warm Period. Unfortunately, warming has NEVER been the

primary 'problem' with global warming (sounds funny doesn't it).

 

Destabilization of the climate patterns as a result of rapid changes

due to energetic forcing factors is where the problem lies. Concerning

this recent temperature fluctuation, here is what we know:

 

-The sun's output has backed off a bit during this time period (its

near a minimum)

-This record 1-year drop in temperature cannot be due to reduced solar

output alone (current long range climate models have taken ALL 'known'

forcing factors into account for predictions...unless the solar output

drop has also been a record breaking/unexpected one, the relative

influence that solar forcing has on temperature in 1 yr cannot explain

this temperature drop)

-CO2 levels are too stable for the temperature to drop that

significantly from the effects of forcing factors like solar output.

It would have to take extreme drops in solar output and/or extreme

increases in volcanism to produce short-term temperature drops on this

scale given the current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Neither of these, to my knowledge, has occurred.

 

This leaves us with only a few explanations for this record fluctuation:

 

1) The earth's climate patterns are de-stabilizing more rapidly than

expected as a result of rapid forcing (in this case via rapid and

unprecedented increases in greenhouse gas emissions). The last 10,000

years has seen the most stable climate on earth so de-stabilization

would be more like going back to 'normal'...unfortunately for

humans...'normal' means an inability to predict the annual climate

enough to support agricultural practices that we take for granted

today. Its NOT a coincidence that human agricultural practices started

around 10,000 years ago. The climate just suddenly started to allow

for that type of cultivation then.

 

2)There is some other UNKNOWN forcing factor. Doesn't life ALWAYS

throw us a curve ball? Why not now? But I think it is clear that

minimized solar output did NOT cause this record fluctuation.

 

Maybe if we referred to the issue of 'global warming' as 'global

climate destabilization' people would stop obsessing over their

thermometers. Then this record fluctuation would ring the same alarm

bells as record warmest years. According to my studies, this sounds a

lot like evidence for whats known as...'global warming'.

 

Just my thoughts.

 

Chris

 

--- In ClimateConcern@yahoogroups.com, bobmagi@... wrote:

>

>

> January was cold overall, even with heat waves in West Austraila.

It is still warmer than the last 100 years. If it goes on for a year

the skeptics will have something to talk about. We are still in the

sunspot minima, but the Sun will soon become more active.

>

> Bob Maginnis

>

> -------------- Original message ----------------------

> From: "ge_burrell"

> >

> > [Moderator's note: This is a great example of the stuff to be

found in the

> > ever-expanding and amazingly diverse forum informally dubbed the

> > "Blogosphere".... of particular fascination to me, is the wide

range of logic,

> > illogic and permutations thereof, present in the numerous

comments: shows how

> > the whole issue is being played out in the minds of many!!]

> >

> > Comment on this linked item please:

> >

> >

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Widescale+Global+Cooling/ar

> > ticle10866.htm

> >

> > It sounds weird to me. Please share feeling on it.

> >

> >

>

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