By Kurt M. Campbell, Jay Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta,
Peter Ogden, leon Fuerth, R. James Woolsey, Alexander T.J. lennon,
Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf
"The study presents summarised results from a broad review of the
foreign policy and national security implications of global climate
change. The study considered 3 possible scenarios, based on projections
from the 2007 IPCC reports, population forecasts, etc. Scenario 1 is
entitled 'Expected' (now considered certain in 30 years time). Scenario
2 is labelled 'Severe' (plausible in 30 years time or perhaps more
likely 60 years from now). Scenario 3, entitled 'Catastrophic', is
postulated about 100 years from now, if mitigation is either ineffective
or climatic feedbacks worsen sharply. The time scales may be debatable,
but it is the end-points that really matter.
"Although not forecasts, these scenarios are plausible projections from
current trends, coupled with careful political and economic judgements.
The resulting brutally frank descriptions of geopolitical and
sociological outcomes make far from comfortable reading. The strategic
and economic implications are very striking, and deserve serious
consideration by anyone with professional concerns in relevant areas. I
would expect further in-depth studies to be conducted within military
staff colleges and economic planning groups in the US and elsewhere.
Perhaps our own RUSI or similar bodies should review the same ground
from a UK/EU perspective.
"The political implications are of course equally striking. For example,
even in Scenario 2 international alliances, regional groupings
(including the EU) and all but the strongest nations come under
considerable pressure, both externally and internally. Moreover, the
study suggests that from this stage onwards globalized trading
structures might collapse, which would obviously have serious economic
consequences. It also points to the probability of increased threats
from terrorism. "
David Bright