The Age of Consequences:

The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

By Kurt M. Campbell, Jay Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta,

Peter Ogden, leon Fuerth, R. James Woolsey, Alexander T.J. lennon,

Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix

http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf

"The study presents summarised results from a broad review of the

foreign policy and national security implications of global climate

change. The study considered 3 possible scenarios, based on projections

from the 2007 IPCC reports, population forecasts, etc. Scenario 1 is

entitled 'Expected' (now considered certain in 30 years time). Scenario

2 is labelled 'Severe' (plausible in 30 years time or perhaps more

likely 60 years from now). Scenario 3, entitled 'Catastrophic', is

postulated about 100 years from now, if mitigation is either ineffective

or climatic feedbacks worsen sharply. The time scales may be debatable,

but it is the end-points that really matter.

"Although not forecasts, these scenarios are plausible projections from

current trends, coupled with careful political and economic judgements.

The resulting brutally frank descriptions of geopolitical and

sociological outcomes make far from comfortable reading. The strategic

and economic implications are very striking, and deserve serious

consideration by anyone with professional concerns in relevant areas. I

would expect further in-depth studies to be conducted within military

staff colleges and economic planning groups in the US and elsewhere.

Perhaps our own RUSI or similar bodies should review the same ground

from a UK/EU perspective.

"The political implications are of course equally striking. For example,

even in Scenario 2 international alliances, regional groupings

(including the EU) and all but the strongest nations come under

considerable pressure, both externally and internally. Moreover, the

study suggests that from this stage onwards globalized trading

structures might collapse, which would obviously have serious economic

consequences. It also points to the probability of increased threats

from terrorism. "

David Bright