ZPlan

 

 

 

 

 

Joining up good intentions into a viable plan

 

 

 

Chaos is the only way to describe the worlds efforts to combat climate change so far. The extent of the problem, though not the precise details, are agreed by many from Ban Kee Moon, Gore and Obama to the world's school children who will be the ones to pay the price.

 

Success does depend on the involvement of everyone on the planet. Without our support governments cannot legislate effectively and remain in power. However suggestions that our individual actions can make a difference are absurd in the extreme, have already delayed legislative action, and have already led to accelerated increases in emissions.

 

We have to

• Agree a scenario and probable solutions

• Co-ordinate our actions to achieve those solutions

• Avoid costly and time-wasting dead ends and false hopes

 

A scenario and probable solutions

The only sufficiently comprehensive scenario I have come across is that outlined in “Climate Code Red” by David Spratt and Philip Sutton. It details the known science and the uncertainties ahead. As a result it proposes the declaration of national emergencies to

• Reduce greenhouse emissions to near zero ASAP

• Capture atmospheric greenhouse gases

• Artificially cool the planet because other measures will not act fast enough

The objective is nothing less than A Safe Climate ASAP.

 

Less comprehensive solutions on the same scale are being proposed by www.350.org, www.100months.org, Operation Noah and Repower America. Many other charities base their actions on the latest IPCC report whose science has been cast in doubt by the unexpected shrinking of the Arctic Ice Cap.

 

Co-ordinate our actions

The key is harmony between government's emergency actions, which can not yet be revealed and the public actions to fit in with them. While we try to do what the government should be doing we only delay their action and raise false hopes.

It does not take a PhD to recognise what governments will need to do

• All electricity will be generated from renewables

• Nearly all energy will come from electricity and be rationed in the short term

• Severe restrictions will be imposed on burning anything

The public actions are designed to adapt to this type of regime rather in the manner that the Transition Towns movement plans to adapt to peak oil and climate change. The difference is a different view of the future leading to different adaptations.

 

Avoiding Costly Dead Ends

Early identification of 'dead ends' is most important to achieving the time scale.

Here are two examples of the difficulty.

The expansion of biofuel production was hailed as a great step towards renewable transportation. Now we find that it endangers rain forests and the supply of food for the poorest peoples. More legislation is being enacted and more research is being financed to overcome these problems and biofuels may yet have a part to play in the medium term solution.

Everyone saves plastic bags to help the planet. If the focus is on carbon emissions this is surely an almost complete diversion of public effort. The Co-op has made their bags bio degradable but I am told this only affects the binder as the plastic itself will last in the form of dust for 500 years! Better surely that the oil may make bags in which the carbon is locked in the form of dust for 500 years than fuel which will be in the atmosphere as CO2 for 500 years warming our planet. We have confused landfill problems and supermarket marketing with the real need to cut carbon emissions. The scale is trivial anyway. A packaging tax or regulation seems inevitable.

 

Vital Public Actions

Once the likely legislation is clear the necessary public actions become clearer. While many other actions can have some benefit and stimulate discussion the following are in my view essential

• Public study, awareness and understanding. Politicians with law degrees and busy lives are not going to be up to date with the dangers and the solutions unless we shame them.

• Be vocal in private discussion, public debate and support national marches and initiatives. Politicians can only act based on the numbers concerned. Don't let the gas guzzlers rule the world.

• Prototype at least one significant solution by eco-renovating your home, your transportation, your diet or your purchasing to prove that legislation along these lines is possible and how effective it would be. Support carbon reduction products even if they are not cost effective and gain the experience of living in transition which will benefit your family and the planet.

 

Vital Study Subjects

Where should most of the electricity come from in your country assuming it has to heat and cool houses and power cars?

How will you organise energy rationing?

No burning! Is it possible?

How should the remaining oil, gas and coal reserves be used to benefit civilisation without endangering the planet? Products not fuels.

Sungrid potential and problems.

 

Why Zplan?

Because the words 'green', 'zero carbon', and 'eco-renovation' have been used to identify and promote a wide range of actions that together are not designed to be part of a solution for the world's greenhouse gas problems. 'Every little' does not add up to a Safe Climate!

www.ASafeClimate.org/ZPlan