If i recall, the World Bank only a few years ago was routinely accused

of sponsoring projects that ignored global warming completely. Times

change.....

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/feb2009/2009-02-23-02.asp

Climate Tipping Point Near Warn UN, World Bank

WASHINGTON, DC, February 23, 2009 (ENS) - The planet is quickly

approaching the tipping point for abrupt climate changes, perhaps

within a few years, according to the UN Environmental Programme's

newly released 2009 Year Book and a separate World Bank report now

being presented throughout Latin America.

The UN agency warns that urgent action is needed to avoid catastrophic

climate events such as major food and water shortages, shifts in

weather patterns, and destabilization of "major ice sheets that could

introduce unanticipated rates of sea level rise within the 21st century."

The report warns that climate changes are occurring much faster than

anticipated by the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

report, issued in 2007.

While earlier estimates forecast up to half a meter (19.5 inches) rise

in sea level in the coming century, updated calculations suggest that

the rise may be as high as two meters (78 inches).

Melting ice sheets and glaciers in the northern and southern

hemispheres will not only contribute to sea level rise, but will also

leave many regions around the world without basic water resources for

human consumption and industrial production.

In its new report, the World Bank focuses on four climate impacts of

special concern: "the warming and eventual disabling of mountain

ecosystems in the Andes; the bleaching of coral reefs leading to an

anticipated total collapse of the coral biome in the Caribbean basin;

the damage to vast stretches of wetlands and associated coastal

systems in the Gulf of Mexico; and the risk of forest dieback in the

Amazon basin."

Last week, World Bank climate experts presented devastating news to an

audience in Lima, Peru - glaciers in the Andes mountain range may

disappear within the next 20 years unless immediate action is taken to

mitigate climate change.

In the past 35 years, Peruvian glaciers have shrunk by 22 percent,

resulting in a 12 percent reduction in freshwater for the coastal

area, the home of about 60 percent of the country's population.

Bolivia and Ecuador, which depend on nearby glaciers for water, also

are facing serious shortages.

The World Bank report "Low Carbon, High Growth: Latin American

Responses to Climate Change," is being presented during regional visit

by bank experts who were in Central America earlier this month and are

now touring Andean countries. The visit will finish with a visit to

Argentina, Chile and Brazil by mid-March.

Damage from hurricanes and tropical storms will increase, the World

Bank reports. Estimates suggest that losses from hurricane damage

along the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico "could increase tenfold from

2020 to 2025."

"In Central America and the Caribbean, losses will triple or

quadruple, respectively, in the same period," said World Bank

economist John Nash, who presented the report in El Salvador.

"Climate change can have extremely severe consequences for Colombian

agriculture," said Walter Vergara, a bank climate change expert who

spoke during the presentation held in Bogota on February 16.

Vergara warned that in the worst-case scenario Colombian farm

production could suffer an almost total loss of 94 percent as a result

of temperature rises from 2.5 to five degrees Celsius and a 10 percent

variation in annual rainfalls.

The bank's report acknowledges the efforts Colombia is making in its

fight against climate change, especially in the area of public

transportation. The bank experts foresee potential benefits for the

country as a result of new global agreements and aid programs.

Augusto de la Torre, a national of Ecuador, is the chief economist for

Latin America and the Caribbean. (Photo courtesy World Bank)

"Current negotiations seek to include programs for reducing emissions

from deforestation and degradation in developing countries, commonly

known as REDD, in a future post-Kyoto agreement," explained Augusto de

la Torre, World Bank lead economist for the region and one of the

authors of the report.

This post-Kyoto agreement is being shaped by talks among governments

throughout this year that will culminate in the annual UN climate

conference in December in Copenhagen, where an agreement is expected

to be finalized.

Combating rising temperatures and slowing the rate that ice and snow

are melting requires quick action.

One near-term solution is to focus on black carbon, or soot, an

aerosol that scientists assert may be the second largest contributor

to climate change after the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and that has

an enhanced impact on snow and ice melt.

Black carbon is emitted from incomplete combustion of burning fossil

fuels and biomass, and contributes to climate change in two ways.

First, while in the atmosphere, the dark particles absorb heat and

warm the air.

Then, when black carbon falls on ice and snow, it absorbs more solar

radiation, leading to more rapid melting, which then leads to less

reflective ice, in a dangerous accelerating feedback cycle.

Unlike carbon dioxide, CO2, which remains in the atmosphere for over a

thousand years, black carbon lingers only for a few days, so reducing

black carbon emissions would have an immediate effect on global

warming and also would have health benefits for millions of people

risk disease and death from breathing polluted air.

"In contrast to reductions in black carbon soot, cuts in CO2

emissions, while essential, do not produce significant cooling for at

least a thousand years," said Durwood Zaelke, president of the

Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development.

Zaelke attended UNEP's Governing Council meeting in Nairobi last week

to urge fast action on black carbon and other strategies that can

produce quick climate mitigation.

He urges that the Montreal Protocol ozone treaty be used to rapidly

phase out hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs, which are used as refrigerants and

foam blowing agents. They also are used in manufacturing and emitted

as by-products of industrial processes.

HFCs are a class of replacements for ozone-depleting

chlorofluorocarbons phased out under the Montreal Protocol. Because

HFCs do not contain chlorine or bromine, they do not deplete the ozone

layer, but they do have global warming potential that is much higher

than CO2.

Another carbon negative strategy is the production of biochar, which

scientists say can significantly reduce current CO2 concentrations

within decades.

Zaelke warns, "The UNEP and World Bank reports are clear - the world

is facing serious danger, and we have to take urgent and aggressive

action now - starting with black carbon reductions - to avoid

devastating consequences of passing tipping points.

Copyright Environment News Service (ENS) 2009. All rights reserved.