Science 15 August 2003:

Vol. 301. no. 5635, pp. 929 - 933

DOI: 10.1126/science.1085046

Review

Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs

T. P. Hughes,1* A. H. Baird,1 D. R. Bellwood,1 M. Card,2 S. R. Connolly,1 C. Folke,3 R. Grosberg,4 O. Hoegh-Guldberg,5 J. B. C. Jackson,6,7 J. Kleypas,8 J. M. Lough,9 P. Marshall,10 M. Nyström,3 S. R. Palumbi,11 J. M. Pandolfi,12 B. Rosen,13 J. Roughgarden14

The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

1 Centre for Coral Reef Biodiversity, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia.

2 Environmental Protection Agency, Old Quarantine Station, Cape Pallarenda, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia.

3 Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.

4 Center for Population Biology, Division of Biological Sciences, Section of Evolution and Ecology, 1 Shields Avenue, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.

5 Centre for Marine Studies, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4070, Australia.

6 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

7 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Box 2070, Balboa, Republic of Panama.

8 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Post Office Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

9 Australian Institute of Marine Sciences, PMB #3, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia.

10 Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Post Office Box 1379, Townsville QLD 4810, Australia.

11 Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Hopkins Marine Station, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA.

12 Department of Paleobiology, Smithsonian Institution, Post Office Box 37012, National Museum of Natural History, Washington, DC 20013, USA.

13 Department of Zoology, The Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.

14 Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

• To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: terry.hughes@jcu.edu.au