How Bad is the Situation

Summary

We should separate what we know from what we suspect and fear

We know

1. Carbon Dioxide has reached its highest level in the atmosphere for 400,000 years and the damage that will be caused is only beginning to be understood.
2. The oceans are absorbing greenhouse gases and becoming less alkaline. As understanding of the damage to phytoplankton and the whole food chain becomes clearer this is becoming the most serious short term effect.

If we compare what we know of CO2 levels and what we know of CO2 emissions it looks like this.

This is quite enough to make us want to act.

We Fear

The following events may be linked to a greater or lesser extent with the Carbon Dioxide levels, the levels of other greenhouse gases, and other human activities.

1. The polar icecap is shrinking faster than scientists predicted, the Arctic Ocean is warming and Greenland is being affected dramatically.
2. Gulf Stream is slowing and may have stopped for 10 days in 2004
3. Loss of ocean species diversity may cause the collapse of the biggest carbon cycle.
4. Forests are becoming less effective in absorbing CO2 and may decline rapidly due to increased forest fire risk. Canadian Forests Now Generate CO2 2009
5. The first hurricane ever reported has been experienced in the South Atlantic
6. Antarctic problems due to warmer water streams undermining and causing loss of ice shelves. The long term effects are difficult to estimate.
7. Past the tipping point? A ten year window closing?
8. Drought threatens to make poor nations suffer and become more militant. Economic refugees will increase 11/03/08
9. Warming will continue long after humans stop burning fossil fuels.
10. Other significant risks have been identified by the insurance industry.
11. No satisfactory global solution has been proposed.

Our task is to find out as quickly as we can what damage we are causing and how we can put it right. Please help us.

Group members

• Malcolm
• ClimateConcern

Link to keep up to date

Planet Ark sponsored by Reuters at: http://www.planetark.org/searchhome.cfm

Sources

1. Dangers Are Greater than People Realise Oxford Climate X Change 03/12/09
2. How bad will it get? 25/08/08
3. A Shot at the Maths 08/12/09
4. Higher Estimates of Warming from MIT 30/05/09
5. World Bank Says Tipping Points are Near 02/03/09
6. Worse than Worst Case IPCC Scenario 15/02/08
7. What is the Probability of Dangerous Climate Change ? - A tough study 06/04/09
8. NASA Key Indicators up to date now.
9. Methane Levels Rising Again 30/10/08
10. Canadian Forests Now Generate CO2 09/01/09
11. Less Arctic Ice 6000 years ago 27/10/08
12. UN Ocean Report Disaster 22/08/08
13. Planet Earth - We have a Problem Briefing for UK Parliament 06/07/07
14. Near Zero Emissions Needed according to latest research 11/03/08
15. IPCC Report Devastating 20/11/07
16. Historic Australian Drought Worsens 22/10/08
17. G8 Discusses Climate Change 24/05/08
18. Amazon Rainforest Grassland by 2060 says study 03/10/08
19. Stern says he under estimated risks 18/04/08
20. Intergovernmental Panel - Ecosystems 10/09/07
21. Co2 Worse than expected
22. Danger to East Mediterranean and N Africa IPCC report 16/01/08
23. Food for 1 billion poor threatened 02/02/08
24. Food Shortage Worse if disease and weather damage is taken into account. 09/12/07
25. Hotter than we think - the science 29/12/07
26. Ocean Acidity Concerns 21/02/08
27. Source and Sink Uncertainties 03/01/08
28. Ocean Collapse Possible as diversity is endangered 27/12/07
29. Wetlands Carbon Bomb 20/07/08
30. African Food Threatened 07/04/08
31. Europe Warming Faster than the average 30/09/08
32. Problems probably greater than governments now anticipate. 30/10/07
33. Summary by the NASA Earth Observatory
34. Growth in Carbon Emissions is Out of Control
35. Warming continues even after humans stop burning fossil fuels
36. MIT Viewpoint September 2006
37. CO2 levels
38. Jeddah Dangerous Pollution 30/04/08
39. Emissions Accelerating
40. Ineffective UN Conference 2006
41. Drought and Desert
42. Disaster in Europe
43. Chinese Concern 02/08/07
44. Worse than we think
45. Forest Fires
46. 2000 Islands in Danger
47. Kenya Problems
48. 3 degrees disaster
49. Extinction of Species
50. IPCC Report Summary
51. How Bad
52. Resilience of Coral Reefs 22/08/07
53. Get ready to suffer.
54. Warmest for 12000 years
55. Feedback Factor
56. Stern Report
57. Food Chain Damaged
58. North Sea Recovery
59. Predicting Extreme Weather Events
60. Earlier Cold Periods Studied using midge heads to indicate instability of the Gulf Stream