The dawn of a new ice age?

Monday, 20 November, 2006

November 2004. For ten days the Gulf Stream, which gives Britain its moderate climate, stopped flowing. Scientists based at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton are trying to work out what this means.

The Gulf Stream raises the temperature of many parts of Europe by up to 10C. Without it the continent would be much drier and colder. If it ever stopped for good Europe would face dire consequences as it plunged into a new ice age.

So the Stream’s recent halt has provoked much worry among climate reseachers. Harry Brydon, of the NOC, said: "We’ve never seen anything like this before and we don’t understand it. We didn’t know it could happen."

Researchers are increasingly coming round to the belief such changes are almost certainly the result of climate change consequent on global warming.

A study by climate researchers at the NOC has shown that the flow rate of the Gulf Stream has dropped by 6m tonnes between 1957 and 1998. Mr Brydon predicts that if this continues at the current rate it would lead to a 1C drop in temperature within the next decade. A complete shut down would lead to 4-6C cooling over the next 20 years. Bearing in mind that the last ice age occurred when Britain’s average temperature was only 4C lower, this is worrying information.

But are the Stream’s halt in 2004, and the decrease in flow rate since 1957, really the first signs that the current is coming to a stop? At this stage Mr Brydon is ruling nothing out. "I want to know more before I say that for definite."

Gareth Hynes

reported in Wessex Scene Online