African Journal of Ecology

Public release date: 24-Nov-2006

Contact: Davina Quarterman

davina.quarterman@oxon.blackwellpublishing.com

Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Impact of climate change in Africa

Africa is the continent that will suffer most under global warming.

Past history gives us lessons on the likely effects of future climate

change. Of greatest concern are the 'large infrequent disturbances'

to the climate as these will have the most devastating effects. In a

remarkable study from the Kenyan Tsavo National Park published today

in the African Journal of Ecology, Dr Lindsey Gillson uncovers

evidence for a drought that coincided with the harrowing period of

Maasai history at the end of the 19th century termed "Emutai" meaning

to wipe out.

"Severe disturbance events and rapid environmental change tend to

occur infrequently, but can have a lasting effect on both environment

and society" says Dr Gillson. This was no-where more evident than in

the case of the Maasai "Emutai". The period 1883-1902 was marked by

epidemics of bovine pleuropneumonia, rinderpest and small pox. The

rains failed completely in 1897 and 1898. The Austrian explorer Dr

Oscar Baumann, who travelled in Maasailand in 1891, wrote chilling

eye-witness accounts of the horror experienced during a large

ecological disturbance:

"There were women wasted to skeletons from whose eyes the madness of

starvation glared ... warriors scarcely able to crawl on all fours,

and apathetic, languishing elders. Swarms of vultures followed them

from high, awaiting their certain victims." (Baumann 1894, Masailand)

Ecological shocks such as that experienced by the Maasai are

predicted to be a feature of global warming. "It is important to use

long-term historical and palaeoecological data to try to understand

the frequency and effects of extreme events, and the way societies

and ecosystems respond to them" Lindsey Gillson explains. Her work

involved analysing sediments from the famous Tsavo National Park. Age

of the sediments was obtained using radiocarbon dating and analysis

of the pollen and charcoal fragments enabled a picture of

environmental changes to be built up. "It is painstaking work, but

the results were clear" says Dr Gillson "at the time of the Emutai

there was a drought, an increase in burning and soil erosion:

indicators of a large infrequent disturbance".

Dr Jon Lovett, who has been researching the impacts of climate change

on Africa, says that we must learn from history and be prepared

"Events like this are going to become more common in the future, and

we need to be ready for them" he says. "Lindsey's work is important

because it shows what has happened in the past, we are now

forewarned. But the big question remains - will policy makers take

any notice?"

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